How is gear generated when opening seasonal caches? Can we check whether this is being performed correctly? I’ve opened 80 Seasonal 1.3 caches for which there is at least a 10% chance to get either Resh’s Crystal OR Oberon’s Keybelt per cache, but I haven’t received either of those even once. The probability of this is 0.9^80 x 100%, which is 0.02%. That’s a 1:5000 odds ratio. It seems I’m more likely to be injured by my toilet than I am to get Resh’s Crystal or Oberon’s Keybelt from these caches, LOL.
@Jeto But seriously, can we check if there’s some bug in this Seasonal cache process?
6 of them were uncommon or red Serpentine Pauldrons. 2 were esgaard mail. 1 was yet another bone mask.
Can we agree that even if your devs didn’t find an issue in their quick tests, that at least a subset of players are getting screwy results from crafting that don’t reflect a random pull from the pool of items?
Yet more dragonguard helms, Serpentine pauldrons and bone legs.
There’s a 97.6% chance that after I pulled my first jeweled chest, my next pull would be something different. There’s an 83.5% chance that it wouldn’t match in color. The chance of it being both the same item and same color is tiny.
Please tell me the dev team is looking into this more? Give me ore and I’m happy to craft as many items as you’d like to see to reproduce my strange runs to track down the bug, I’m just out of juice to do it myself for a while.
This does NOT seem random. In fact, it reminds me of how I’ve pulled over 80 seasonal caches from Season 1.3 and not gotten a single Resh Crystal or Oberon’s Keybelt.
Whether its Toragon, Soulchaser, or Season 1.3 caches, it is VERY probable that something is messing up the randomization process.
Note: In case it’s not obvious, almost 50% of the pulls were Serpentine shields. In fact, 20% of all the pulls were Epic, Light, Serpentine shields… That’s amazing!
I know I’ve been complaining all over these threads about not getting Resh Crystal or Oberon’s Keybelt from over 80 caches from Season 1.3, and people are probably annoyed by these complaints. But when you’ve spent two seasons and 16,000 coins on seasonal caches, it’s reasonable to expect a fair game. I’ve been suspicious of the RNG for awhile, but now I’m convinced something is weird. It’s all nice if you’re the lucky ones whose RNG seed gives you 3 Seasonal Legendaries from a handful of caches. It sucks if you’re one of the schmucks like me with a bad RNG seed who spends money, time, and seasonal currency thinking I have a fair probability but end up with statistically unlikely results.
We’re currently investigating I guess what we can call less direct or less obvious reasons our 420 million tests showed correct RNG but we’re getting such streaky luck on the live game.
So I just wanted you all to know that while our initial tests showed that the RNG itself is correct, we’re not dismissing these reports out of hand.
Really good to know that you’re still looking into this. I’m happy to do whatever tests that might help, within the limitations of my resources, of course.
It seems like it’s a bear of a bug to identify, along with being an annoying one to hit in game.
After the previous streaks of repeats I posted, I tried to craft with different followers and different options several times a day every day, usually at least 8 consecutive crafts each. All of them seem to be good mixture of different items. Not sure if this info helps.
I’ve had both in the past few days (streaks of pauldrons and a good mix), though I haven’t had much ore to experiment with. The streaks aren’t consistent every time I craft, but often enough to be obvious. It makes sense with what @Kafka said, the RNG itself doesn’t appear to be broken, but something else is affecting how it’s applied, and that sometimes is.
@Kafka Just to satisfy my sense of propriety, can we either move this thread to an [Investigating] bug report, or start a new thread there about the streaks, since the team appears to agree there’s something wonky going on? I just don’t want it to get lost in the “suggestions” bin.
@Kafka and can we also check whether seasonal caches are affected too? The only difference between the cache and the followers is the picture icon - otherwise, functionally they are identical and could therefore be affected by the same bug. My personal experience would suggest that’s the case.
Thanks for your patience everyone!
We have found is that crating with followers so Gemka, Toragon and Soulchaser, the initial random seed was not being set correctly which is why many of you saw a streak of duplicate items, which in turn led to further crafting to not be a random array of items.
A fix for this is being released (if it hasn’t already before I finish posting this).
In regards to concerns about caches, this is something we are also going to look into further after this fix has been released, but can confirm in the meantime it is not using the same formula the crafting Followers were.
Appreciate everyone’s patience and sharing your examples!
ps. just wanted to post this before I changed the thread title, in case the information I got back magically a whole different situation!
