To RNG or not to RNG, that is the question: Seasonal Caches

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Any idea roughly how many Resh Crystal’s you’ve received? Also, roughly how many S-1.3 caches you’ve opened total for all time?

I’ve gotten about the 10% drop rate from basic caches, I kept track as they dropped. I’m afraid I don’t know how many I’ve opened in total, I only started keeping track of expenditures after I went the whole season and then another 2,600 ancient coins of UC and didn’t pull a key belt. I think I’m still within the range of normal but unlucky, but getting close to “RNG truly hates me”

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Thanks, Tau!

As mentioned in the previous thread we will be investigating the intelligence and rng behind caches.
At the moment the team is very deep in submissions for 2.0, but it is still on the radar to look into further.
As always, once I do get some information on this I will update the relevant threads.


@Jeto To test the seasonal cache RNG, can we do an experiment? Give me a large sum of seasonal coins (e.g., 20,000), I’ll spend them all on Season 1.3 caches, and then we’ll see what we get. After the “experiment”, we can then rollback my account to right before I got the coins, meaning I return all resources and gear that I got from the experiment.

At this point, I definitely don’t feel comfortable using my personal cache of coins until I have some evidence that the Seasonal 1.3 Archive caches are working as expected.

@Jeto @Kafka Final tally after opening 100 Season 1.3 caches (75 Ultimates + 25 Enhanced):

  • 2 Resh’s Crystals
  • 0 Oberon’s Keybelt
  • Lot’s of shards and basic gear

Statistically speaking, this is a very very unlikely outcome. Any chance we could run an experiment to test this?

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Hey @AeonNhiyr

This is something the team has been looking into in the background of some pretty huge 2.0 update prep.
So far, unlike Toragon, we have not found anything to indicate an issue with how the chance data is generated and how the rewards are rolled.
For example:

  • The number shown on the cache screen is pulled directly from the data these checks are made with

  • Tried making bulk purchases of 100 at once and they appear to give pretty close to the expected results. Got 3-8 belts where the average expected would be 5.

    • Just tested again on my own personal account opening 4 Enhanced Caches in Season 1.3 and got the following: 1 Dreamhold Mirror, 360 Spell Shards and 2 Resh crystals.

Something we will keep an eye on, but at this stage as mentioned, there isn’t anything to indicate that Season 1.3 is working any differently to the other Seasons or that generally there is a discrepancy within the Season caches.

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Hi @Jeto

Seriously, thank you so much for the research you’re putting into this! :smiley:

The data you provided actually makes me feel even more concerned about my situation. Compared to your results, my results are just straight up statistical anomalies:

  1. Your experiments got 3 to 8 belts for bulk purchases of 100 at once; however, for my 75 sequential purchases, I didn’t get any belts. For the bulk purchases of 100 at once, did you get any batches with 0 belts?
  2. You got 2 Resh Crystals for 4 enhanced caches; however, I got the same number of Resh Crystals for 100 caches.
  3. Based on the above observations, there are two additional factors that might be affecting outcomes: (1) account-based factors; (2) opening caches sequentially versus as a batch.

Would it be possible to do the experiment I referenced here:


@Jeto I must be the most unlucky person around, because I’ve now spent two seasons of seasonal coin on opening 98 ultimate caches and 25 enhanced caches, and I have not obtained a single Oberon belt… Which has a 0.4% chance of happening.

Considering you got between 3 and 8 belts when opening batches of 100 ultimate caches, my result seems very weird. Maybe it’s bad luck, or maybe I’m insane to keep doing the same thing and expect different results.

Can I confirm if you got any 0 belt results when opening batches of 100 ultimate caches? Also, which version the game were you using for those experiments? I noticed after going to version 2.0, I got 3 Resh’s Crystals after opening 23 UCs, where’s in prior versions I got 1 crystal after opening 75 UCs… Which is a big change in outcomes.

I’m on the same situation concerning 1.1 seasonal caches… I’m spending different caches types on batchs without ANY luck. The last was something like 1500 coins on Enhanced caches and again, nothing. Really annoying and discouraging. It’s not a happy anniversary for me. Between these things and the glyphs situation (don’t make me begin on the T4 relics) is really frustrating. I think that I’m going to be gone for good on the next weeks…

@Jeto @Rrildo For perspective, I’ve purchased all five season passes, accrued close to all possible seasonal currency for seasons 1.3 & 1.4 & 1.5, and spent maybe 75% of that vast sum on Season 1.3 caches alone… And still no Oberon’s Belt. That’s over 22,000 seasonal currency on 98 ultimate caches and 25 enhanced caches, and still no Oberon’s. There are two possible explanations for this 0.4% chance outcome:

  1. RNG is intact, but I’m just super unlucky
  2. RNG has a bug

Considering the pattern, I’m inclined to believe the latter.

Yesterday spent some time confirming further on both my own personal account & following up with the dev who helped me test the bundles of 100 - both of us were able to get Oberon’s Belt, pre and post 2.0 updates.

As the data for all rewards, cache openings, chests etc are stored on our own servers and not on players own personal data, at this stage it seems like it is terrible luck. And being chance, any past opened caches do not affect your chances in future caches.

Having said that, I checked your past 3 months cache openings and while you didn’t get Oberon’s Keybelt there has been a number of Epic Dreamhold items rewarded! Which is good to see, as I believe if there was an issue with 1.3 drop rate data, then all gear items would not be appearing, as opposed to one specific piece as it’s all stored together.

@Jeto Thank you for all the work looking into this! :smiley: :+1:

Can I confirm if you got any 0 belt results when opening batches of 100 ultimate caches?

The fact that I’ve received a number of Epic Dreamhold items actually furthers my suspicions. Even though the probability epic Dreamhold weapons, accessories, spells, and armor are 1%, 2%, 2%, and 3%, respectively, I’ve received multiples of those items from caches despite not receiving any Oberon’s (5% probability). This distribution just simply looks so similar to the Toragon /Gemka /Soulchaser issues, where certain low-probability items were obtained more frequently than others.

I think I just feel rather discouraged about this game. I’ve spent so much money supporting this game by buying all the seasonal passes… and yet for the main task that I’m trying to accomplish (getting the seasonal gear), I have terrible luck that is statistically aberrant, and the developers have limited my ability to balance that “bad luck” (I still think it’s bad RNG) by limiting me to 30 seasonal coins per day… even though I’ve purchased all 5 seasons of content. I don’t want to cross streams too much with another issue, but seriously… If the developers are gonna stick with “RNG will RNG” as an answer to my problem, then we should be able to get 30 seasonal coins per day PER SEASON that we’ve purchased.

Sorry it might not have been clear - they didn’t get an instance when opening 100 of not getting a belt.

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@Jeto Once again, thank you for the followup info! :smiley:

I think this data further underscores my concerns about my results. If the developers can’t reproduce a 0-belt run (let alone a 1- or 2-belt run), then maybe something is awry? For example, perhaps RNG is intact for a one-time batch of 100-caches (i.e., the experiment done by the developers), but falters when performing 100 sequential cache openings (i.e., essentially what I did).

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I was doing single opens on my personal account, as it’s my personal account and not a developer account. To that, a developer account is using the same data, it just has the ability to bulk open caches to make testing faster, but the results are the same.

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I just opened 3 Enhanced Caches from this new season, and I got a Paleorc from all 3 of them :face_with_diagonal_mouth:


What rarity levels were they?

For Season 2.0, I’ve opened 10 UCs and received 2 Xione’s crystals. The probability of getting a particular follower’s crystal is 0.3125% per Ultimate Cache (UC). This kinda looks like the Follower Crafting bug, where someone will get multiples of the same item.

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