Season 1.4 Legendary Item Odds

All right, I’m calling out to all you Seasonal Legendary Item Collectors! After buying 35 ultimate caches last season and not getting an Oberon’s Keybelt, I am curious to see exactly how the odds for getting Season 1.4’s Legendary Duskside Helm (DH) are going to play out (purportedly 5% odds for ultimate caches). If anyone is interested in playing along, feel free to post here on how many Season 1.4 caches you’ve purchased and whether you’ve won the seasonal legendary item. Feel free to update your post as the season rolls along (instead of creating a new post)!

Note: Correct me if I’m wrong, but the odds of getting at least one DH after opening 35 ultimate caches is (1-.95^35) = 83.3%

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Purchases:

  • Day 1: Bought 5 ultimate caches (UCs)
  • Day 2: Bought 5 more UCs
  • Day 4: Bought 5 more UCs

Total:

  • Odds of getting a Duskside Helm (DH) per UC: 5%
  • Odds of getting at least one DH after 10 UCs: (1-0.95^15) = 53.7%
  • Result: I got the DH!!!
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Day 3: Bought 3 ultimate caches (UCs)

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@Pallegina Wowzerz! That’s awesome!!! Just out of curiosity, did you purchase either of the seasonal passes?

Yeah, I got pretty lucky there. :sweat_smile:

But to answer your question: no, I didn’t purchase any of the seasonal passes.

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I got mine today with the first Enhanced cache that I bought. I had bought 4 Fallen caches previously.