Season 1.4 Legendary Item Odds

All right, I’m calling out to all you Seasonal Legendary Item Collectors! After buying 35 ultimate caches last season and not getting an Oberon’s Keybelt, I am curious to see exactly how the odds for getting Season 1.4’s Legendary Duskside Helm (DH) are going to play out (purportedly 5% odds for ultimate caches). If anyone is interested in playing along, feel free to post here on how many Season 1.4 caches you’ve purchased and whether you’ve won the seasonal legendary item. Feel free to update your post as the season rolls along (instead of creating a new post)!

Note: Correct me if I’m wrong, but the odds of getting at least one DH after opening 35 ultimate caches is (1-.95^35) = 83.3%



  • Day 1: Bought 5 ultimate caches (UCs)
  • Day 2: Bought 5 more UCs
  • Day 4: Bought 5 more UCs


  • Odds of getting a Duskside Helm (DH) per UC: 5%
  • Odds of getting at least one DH after 10 UCs: (1-0.95^15) = 53.7%
  • Result: I got the DH!!!
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Day 3: Bought 3 ultimate caches (UCs)

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@Pallegina Wowzerz! That’s awesome!!! Just out of curiosity, did you purchase either of the seasonal passes?

Yeah, I got pretty lucky there. :sweat_smile:

But to answer your question: no, I didn’t purchase any of the seasonal passes.

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I got mine today with the first Enhanced cache that I bought. I had bought 4 Fallen caches previously.

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Hi, I didn’t get any seasonal legendary gear from the 4 seasons yet.
And to make this clear: if there is a real RNG behind, the chance doesn’t add up. Only if there are some rules behind like next time use another category like exclude shards the chance will increase if you open caches in sequence.

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I am trying for duskhide helm and I have opened 5 ultimate caches so far and no luck. :frowning:

Yeah, I’m really uncertain about the RNG for the Seasonal Legendary items in this game. I’ve opened up 41 ultimate caches for Season 1.3, and still no Oberon’s Keybelt. Just to be clear… that’s 8200 seasonal currency, LOL.

Question for the developers: Can we confirm whether the game in any way limits how many Seasonal Legendary items can be rewarded?

Here is my version:

  • Odds of getting a Duskside Helm (DH) per UC: 5%
  • Odds of getting at least one DH after 43 UCs: (1-0.95^43) = 88.4%
  • Result:

The part that is really infuriating is that I have received 0 legendary items in those 43 Ultimate Caches.

  • Odds of getting any legendary per UC: 7.5%
  • Odds of getting at least one Legendary after 43 UCs: (1-0.925^43) = 96.5%

I get that this is RNG at its worst, but there has to be a better way to do this.


Oh man that sucks!!! And apparently not too uncommon. Out of the 4 seasons we’ve had, one season took around 40 UCs to get the seasonal legendary, and the other season I haven’t got the seasonal legendary after 41 UCs. What are the chances of that?? Lol. I wish we could have some kind of transparency on this.

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Been farming for this for ages!

Congrats!! Any idea how many chests you had to open?

I pulled mine the other day after opening 14 ultimate caches. No legendary items aside from the helm.

15 Ultimate caches:


Lol… I’ve now purchased SEVENTY Season 1.3 UCs, and still no Oberon’s Keybelt.

UPDATE: As of 1/10/23, 71 UCs and no Oberon

There really really does need to be a fall back reward.

A guarantee of the legendary season relic after 40 or 50 or even 60 ultimate caches being opened. Just to stop frustration like that above. (60 seems a little high but you should get one before that)

*I opened 22-23 caches from season 1.4 and no ultimate. That sucks but I get it. If I was to open another 30 caches and still not get the seasonal legendary item I’d be starting to get pretty annoyed.


Would be nice
I’ve opened ALOT of elite season caches over the 4 seasons, well over 20 in the last season alone since I got the reward for opening 20 caches

Right now I have 0 season cache specific legendary gear pieces

It’s random chance, I get it, but it’s also quite likely now that I’ll not be able to “catch up”
Bit disappointing that there is only one way to target these gear pieces and its random chance and also its heavily time gated


I’ve blown through over 14,000 seasonal currency / ancient coin trying to get Oberon’s Keybelt, and I still haven’t gotten it. On one hand it’s annoying since the probability of this outcome is 2% [(1-0.05)^71 x 100%]. On the other hand, I realized in all those Seasonal 1.3 UCs, I got this stuff:

  • Epic Dreamhold Weapon x1 (Probability of 1%)
  • Epic Dreamhold Armor x2 (Probability of 2% each)
  • Epic Dreamhold Accessory x2 (Probability of 2% each)
  • Epic Dreamhold Spell x1 (Probability of 2%)

Out of 71 UCs, I got six items that have a probability of 2% or less… but not once did I get the legendary seasonal item which has a probability of 5%. But then I take solace in the age-old adage, “Nothing is impossible, just highly improbable.” And I wonder, just how improbable is the seasonal legendary item?

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I just obtained Oberon’s Keybelt after opening an Enhanced Cache.

(Throughout all the Seasons I now opened a total of 39 Ultimate Caches and a hand full of Enhanced Caches.)