To RNG or not to RNG, that is the question: Seasonal Caches

I just opened 3 Enhanced Caches from this new season, and I got a Paleorc from all 3 of them :face_with_diagonal_mouth:

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What rarity levels were they?

For Season 2.0, I’ve opened 10 UCs and received 2 Xione’s crystals. The probability of getting a particular follower’s crystal is 0.3125% per Ultimate Cache (UC). This kinda looks like the Follower Crafting bug, where someone will get multiples of the same item.

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So, here’s my current tally for Season. 1.3:

  • After opening 103 ultimate caches and 25 enhanced caches, I didn’t get a single Oberon’s Keybelt. The chance of this outcome is 0.3%, or less than 1 in 300.
  • For perspective, there are reports that some people got 2 or 3 Oberon’s in a fraction of that number of chests.
  • For further perspective, I spent over 22500 seasonal currency, which represents over three seasons’ worth of saving almost at the max rate possible.

Developers: The patterns of outcomes I’ve seen during this timeframe have been as suspect as what we saw with the followers’ loot outcomes. I have no idea what bug had locked people into getting certain outcomes with the followers’ loot, but I wonder if I’ve experienced that same bug during the past 9 months that I’ve been trying to get Oberon’s. The problem is that unlike the follower loot bug, there is no way for players to test this hypothesis. And just like the initial days of the follower loot bug saga, developers are saying they cant identify any bug.

UC 101: Epic Weapon (1%)
UC 102: Legendary Relic (18%)
UC 103: Epic Armor (3%)

Some other RNG threads:

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@Jeto am I able to request and obtain a copy of my account’s data to look at how many ultimate cache’s I’ve “purchased” and see what the results were?

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Could be an idea to guarantee an account finds a seasonal legendary after spending so many resources or opening so many chests, like numerous other games do, to limit the amount of unluckiness players experience?

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I think that’s a good idea.

For me, my results are so far away from what would be expected for “normal statistics” that it makes me think there is something wrong with the system itself. This is not unprecedented, as we previously saw a bug with the supposedly random results that followers were supposed to craft.

Hi AeonNhiyr,

Unfortunately we aren’t able to export data like that.

As Jeto has explained, there was a problem with the Follower Crafting RNG but if there is a bug here with cache openings, it cannot be related or have the same root cause, because these elements of the game do not use the same functionality to generate their results. It is also not possible for the cache RNG to be tied to the player opening the caches. Every cache opened is just one more cache opened.

All that said, even the engineers who investigated both this and the Follower issue acknowledge that it’s also not impossible that there is a bug. But unfortunately with so few reports to go on and being unable to replicate the issue on either the bulk tests or on our personal accounts on the live game (that are exactly the same as any other player account), we currently cannot positively identify any cause or even likely cause.

This issue is in our bug database and should we get more information from player reports, or manage to identify a cause, we can update you. We obviously want to find a cause if there is a bug just like we did in the case of Followers.

However, as you’ve said, the odds of not opening a unique Legendary gear piece in so many opens is increasingly slim, but not impossible. If we continued to run tests opening 100 caches at a time, the result with no Keybelts would appear eventually because in a variance curve, that result would have to turn up somewhere.

Given that that is the case, we’ve also got your feedback about the amount of currency in our database and also that even if this scenario is completely possible without any bugs, that it’s obviously not a pleasant one. Especially for someone like you who is this enthusiastic. So I do think that @Personal_Joke’s suggestion is a very reasonable one and we can look into that.
I know that this is not a satisfying outcome for now, but there’s just not much further we can go with this at this stage.

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I like @Personal_Joke 's suggestion. I’ve seen other games have bad luck protection where the chance of an elusive item dropping increases every time you get a drop/open a chest/loot box etc, that doesn’t include the item. You can then reset the chance to the base amount once that item has dropped, so that it doesn’t become farmable.

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Hi @Mother_Morgz ,

Thank you for the detailed reply! I appreciate the time, attention, and information you put in the post. :smiley: And yeah, I agree that @Personal_Joke 's suggestion is a great idea!

Although this might be really out-of-the-box, I suggest running an experiment: With the understanding (and my permission) to roll-back my account to its pre-experiment state, the developers can give me something like 1,000,000 seasonal currency. I’ll run a bunch of cache experiments on my side to see whether it’s even possible for me to get the keybelt. After I’ve spent the 1,000,000 currency, I’ll give you the breakdown of what I got, and you can roll back my account to its state before I got the currency, regardless of whether I got a keybelt or not.

The suggestion for a fallback reward for really bad RNG luck has been around for a while. Hopefully it can be moved up the priority list.

Intelligent’s solution above works well too.

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Another example of non-RNG:
Season 1.4 Fallen Caches have a 0.8% chance of giving Eveline’s Locket. Someone recently got two Eveline’s Lockets out of 12 Fallen Caches. What are the chances of that? Apparently better than my account getting a single Oberon’s Keybelt from over 100 caches with a 5% probability each.

Funny thing, this looks a lot like what I posted here:

And this one:

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Haha that’s a sweet reward!!

What caches did you open and how many total?

That was during season 1.5
After failing to get the helm in season 1.4 I decided a new tactic of opening in groups of 5 ultimate caches at a time.

I ended up getting 3 rings in Cache #s 9, 10, and 13.

Got the 1.4 Helm from Archive Coins (probably took 70+ ultimate caches total)

Still no Key Belt from 1.3 so far. I have not kept count on caches from that season, but I would say 50+ ultimates opened.

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Season 1.3 Ultimate Cache #104: Legendary Relic (18%)… Still no Oberon’s Keybelt.

Probability of no Oberon’s Keybelt after 104 UCs and 25 ECs: 0.29% or less than 3:1000

I’ve now opened 40 Season 2.0 UCs and have not obtained the Legendary Fallen Star Helm (5% chance per UC). The probability of this outcome is less than 13%.

Try buying them in batches, instead of one by one. I don’t have the Oberon’s Keybelt, and I haven’t really tried to get it, but with the current season I saved 1200 crabloons, bought 4 enhanced caches at once, and then 4 ultimate caches at once. Got the helm from both purchases. I am f2p player, so I had to save almost whole season in order to get that much currency. Before that I had bought only 20 regular caches enough to complete the goal.

With the currency that I got from completing all chapters in Elite, when it gets converted to ancient coins at the end of the season, I’ll try the same tactic, and try to obtain some of the items that I am missing.

@Heno3HaTaTa This season I’ve tried the batch-purchase process, too. I’ve purchased eight batches of 5 UCs (for a total of 40 UCs), and still not gotten a Fallen Helm.

@Heno3HaTaTa I’m honestly super stoked and happy to hear that you were able to get a Fallen Helm as a f2p player after opening 4 ECs and 4 UCs!!! Is that all you’ve purchased this season?

Yes, and the 20 regular caches before that.

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