The probability of getting a Seasonal Legendary item (SLI) is 5% for an Ultimate Cache (UC) and 2% for an Enhanced Cache (EC).
To get a 50-50 chance of getting the SLI, you have to open 14 UCs. In other words, the probability of getting at least one SLI is 50% after opening 14 UCs.
For 5 out of 6 seasons, it has taken me more than 14 UCs to obtain a SLI. Usually, it has required up to 30 or 40.
For Season 1.3, I’ve opened 104 UCs and 25 ECs and still not obtained the SLI.
If the results were truly randomized, then we would expect that in half of the seasons I’d get the SLI in 14 UCs or less. This has not been the case.
I do not keep track of my purchases and the items I get from them. As a f2p player I don’t have too much currency to spend after buying the spells and the minions. From the 6 SLIs I am missing only 2 - the ones from S1.2 and S1.3. I guess I am fairly lucky. At the end of this season I will try to obtain the missing items using the batch approach. I will have about 1800 ancient coins to spend.
I don’t think you’re lucky or that I’m unlucky. It sounds like the mechanics are working as expected for you, given the above description of probabilities. My results, however, are aberrant. I didn’t start keeping track of my purchases until I started realizing that I was spending a lot more seasonal currency than f2p players to get the same (or fewer) seasonal items. This is why I am increasingly concerned about the RNG of this game.
For Season 2.0, I’ve opened 40 UCs thus far in 8 batches of 5 UCs, and I have not received the Fallen Helm yet. I’m about to open my last 5 UCs. I think I know what the result will be! LOL
And surprise surprise, after opening my last 5 Season 2.0 UCs (for a total of 45 UCs across the season), no Fallen Helm for the entirety of Season 2.0.
Summary: Across Season 1.3 and Season 2.0, I’ve opened up 150 UCs and 25 ECs, and I haven’t received a seasonal legendary item for either season. The chance for this outcome is less than 0.03%. With these odds, I’m more likely to flip a coin 11 times and get exclusively tails than I am to get a seasonal legendary item.
Probably 50-60, maybe higher. I never thought to keep track during 1.3, but it was a season pass platinum amount. Then another 10-15 from archives since it went to archive, and finally these 17.
After season ended I had 1900 ancient coins to spend. I did the following:
Went to S1.2, bought 4 ECs and got the SLI.
Went to S1.3, bought 4 ECs, then bought 4 UCs, then another 3 ECs - didn’t get the keybelt. From these purchases I got 1 Resh crystal, 1 Mythic relic, 1 Legendary relic, 1 Epic relic, 1 Legendary seasonal spell
It’s time to look at the data for this game’s random number generation (RNG) as it relates to Seasonal Legendary Items (SLI). Here is a summary of my data:
The probability of winning an SLI when opening a seasonal Ultimate Cache (UC) is 5% (p=0.05). I’m going to define a “success” as meaning that I won a SLI after opening a UC.
Across all six seasons, I’ve opened approximately 300 UCs (n=300). The game developers are welcome to verify this, as this is an approximation of 50 UCs x6 seasons plus archive-based UCs.
Across all six seasons, I’ve won a total of 6 SLIs (total of 6 successes): Season 1.0 x2, Season 1.1 x2, Season 1.2 x1, Season 1.3 x0, Season 1.4 x1, Season 1.5 x1, and Season 2.0 x0. The game developers are also welcome to verify this.
The next post below will contain an analysis of the statistics for these outcomes.
After opening 300 UCs, we would expect that someone wins between 8 and 22 SLIs. However, the fact that I have only had 6 successes is a statistical outlier and is demonstrative of there being a problem with this game’s RNG for seasonal caches.
I have merged the new thread into this existing thread, as is an extension of the same discussion and also keeps this discussion all in one place.
Also while this mentions “expected number of successes” there will always be outliers on both sides, which I believe has already been touched on in this thread.
Both outliers as players who have more luck, seeing an unexpected number of success as well as players who experience the other side, with getting less than expected success.
First: How many players have opened as many UCs as I have and received as few (or fewer) SLIs as I have? Statistically speaking, we’d have to have A LOT of players open up 300 or more UCs before we would even have a chance for my specific outcome to pop up. Is it possible? Sure, because ANYTHING is possible. Is it likely? Nope. Second: Are there any outliers on the opposite side? Is there anyone in the game’s database that has 25 SLIs after opening 300 or fewer UCs? Third: “low outliers” should be vigorously inspected and guarded against. This is a gambling game, after all. Low outliers are very concerning for gambling games in which real-world money can be traded for chances for high-value in-game benefits.
Here’s an interesting point which may or may not be a coincidence:
Winning 6 SLI’s is way lower than expected for opening 300 UCs (5% probability of SLI per UC); however, winning 6 SLI’s is the exact average expected for opening 300 ECs (2% probability of SLI per EC).
Can we confirm whether the game is correctly pointing the Ultimate Cache option to the Ultimate Cache code for BOTH active and archived seasons? It could be that the Ultimate Cache option is actually giving Enhanced Cache code/results. I’ve seen this kind of error before, where a mythic item gives legendary stats, a legendary item gives epic stats, etc.
I know of a very clear lucky outlier, a friend of mine. Got the legendary cache-only items in:
-Second UC in season 1.4
-Third UC in season 1.5
-Third UC in season 2.0
