Could you possibly find out:
- Approximately how many UCs has your friend opened in total?
- Did they buy any season passes?
- Did they get those SLIs during the season or in the archive?
My friend:
-Seasons 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3: 10-15 UC opened in archive, no SLI.
-Season 1.4: 2 UC opened in the archive, SLI on the second (yesterday).
-Season 1.5: 5-10 UC during the season, SLI on the third.
-Season 2.0: 10-15 UC during the season, SLI on the third.
No season pass bought.
Myself:
-Seasons 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 and 1.4: 20-25 UC opened in archive. Got 1.1 SLI (10th attempt or so) and 1.2 SLI (2nd attempt).
-Season 1.5: 5-10 UC during the season, no SLI.
-Season 2.0: 10 UC and 15-20 basic caches during the season, SLI on the last basic cache.
No season pass bought.
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Thank you so much!! 
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Your numbers are super interesting and support the idea that something is wrong with the RNG (or application of the RNG), at least for UCs. If Iām reading your UC numbers correctly, youāve opened up a total of around 100 UCs across all seasons, and only received 2 SLIs from these 100 UCs (Iām not counting items from the basic cache here). This is actually consistent with my own data, in which Iāve obtained only 6 SLIs from approximately 300 UCs. Therefore, we both have a success rate of 1 SLI per 50 UCs (2%), which is far lower than the expected rate. For Season 1.3 in particular, my success rate is 0 in 105.
If the random number generation was truly working (or applied) as expected with the advertised SLI probabilities (5% per UC), the likelihood for one of us to get this 1:50 success rate would be very lowā¦ and even lower for two of us. Instead, it looks like weāre getting the expected results for Enhanced Caches (2% per EC), not Ultimate Caches (which should be 5% per UC).
I think you are not reading correctly. I have opened 20-25 UCs in total between the first four seasons (spent most of my ancient coins in Resh crystals before 2.0). I have grouped all of them together since I couldnāt say how many I have opened in each season, sorry if I was not clear. Therefore, the success rate (10%) is above the expected probability. Even if we assume that I may have underestimated the numbers of UCs opened, I should be near the 5%.
Your numbers are indeed quite strange. Usually I would just dismiss it as a very bad luck RNG, but we have seen cases of RNG not working properly (Toragon crafting) so I understand your worry about something buggy going on behind the code. Also, I agree that it would be nice having some kind of ābad luck protectionā that gives you the item once you have opened a high number of caches without finding one. Randomness can be fun, but very bad luck streaks arenāt.
I really hope you can finally get what you have been looking for.
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Opened up my 106th and 107th Season 1.3 UC, and still no Seasonal Legendary Item (Oberonās).
@Mother_Morgz @jeto So, maybe this will be my last attempt at seeking help with this through developer feedback:
Ever since the Seasons were released, I estimate that Iāve opened up 300 Ultimate Caches (UCs) and won a total of 6 Seasonal Legendary Items (SLIs). Statistically speaking, this is a highly HIGHLY unlikely outcome for a 5% winning probability - in fact, itās more than 2 standard deviations lower than the expected average SLI winnings for 300 UCs. However, this result is actually the exact expected average for opening 300 Enhanced Caches (ECs) which have a 2% winning probability per cache. This data suggests there is a bug that gives me EC results when I purchase UCs. I have no idea what could be causing this, but I think the only way to confirm it is to run a test on my own account since this will preserve all influencing factors (aside from updates to underlying game code). Therefore, I would like to again request that the developers let me run the following test on my own account:
- Give me a large sum of seasonal coins, something like 300,000.
- Iāll use those coins to purchase a bunch of UCs and document the results.
- The developers can revert my account back to what it was before getting the 300,000 coins. (I would give them full permission to do this within 48 hours of receiving the large sum of coins.)
The only way to truly control for all the factors contributing to my results is for me to run the test on my own account. Again, if we do this test, I would give the developers permission to roll back my account to the state prior to receiving the large ancient coin package, as long as it is within 48 hours of receiving the ancient coin package. For all I know, thereās a bug that swaps UCs for ECs - maybe it is still there, maybe it was fixed a month ago, I have no idea. But again, my current results are not consistent with a system that is working correctly for my account. Furthermore, by not providing a clear, transparent, and timely process for investigating this phenomenon, the developers are possibly protecting a bug that exposes gamers to the dangerous loot box gambling phenomenon that has been researched over the past decade - spend more time and money for more chances to win stuff.
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@AeonNhiyr, fyi - with the latest replayable adventure I was able to collect some ancient coins - 1600 to be exact.
My goal was to collect 2000 and buy the following - 10 ECs at once, and in case I donāt get the SLI, buy 5 UCs at once.
I decided to buy the ECs before reaching my goal, and Iām happy to report that I got Oberonās keybelt. Other notable items from the purchase - 2 Resh crystals, 1 epic relic, 1 rare relic.
I wish you best of luck with your future purchases.
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What a ride! Congrats!
@Jeto Any chance we can get this implemented in Season 2.2 or 2.3?
Iāve spent avout 4 seasons worth of seasonal coin (over 23,000) on over 100 Season 1.3 UCs, all without getting the Oberonās Keybelt (5% chance per UC). By the time the current season is up, I will have saved up over 7000 seasonal coin to spend on 35 more Season 1.3 UCs. Iām feeling really funky that Iām about to throw away a 5th seasonās worth of currency for 35 more chances at getting Oberonāsā¦ 