Unpublished Drop Rates (Mutiny, Item Crafters, etc.)

Hi!

If you are like me, you like to know your chance at getting something. It’s helpful for several reasons: setting expectations, understanding cost/benefit vs other choices, not feeling like you are losing your f’ing mind because something is supposedly a “small chance” or an “increased chance” but never actually happens. Imagine someone telling you that if you spend 5 hours doing something you have a “small chance” of winning some item but then they never quantify what that chance is. Would you do it? Probably not (unless you are a PQ3 player running Dungeons).

With that in mind I thought it might be helpful to provide some data on unpublished Drop Rates in a central location. Please respond with your experience (or even better, data!) about drop rates.

  • ’Mutiny’ Vance
    Ms Vance is the Locksmith follower earned after completing Chapter X. She has the following abilities (Lever 45 version shown here):

    With this “free play” ability, Mutiny is one of the best overall followers / use for ore. By redeeming Skirmish or Dungeon tickets you can receive the same XP, Gold, and random chest reward as running an actual Skirmish or even better, Empowered Dungeon at your highest completed Level. Dungeon Tickets are more valuable than Skirmish Tickets by far: better XP and gold, the full complement of Marks for the Dungeon Difficulty “completed”, and a Dungeon chest (no more Wooden waste!). So it would be nice to know: what are the chances of actually receiving a Dungeon Ticket instead of Skirmish Ticket and what is the “increase in chance” for levelling up Mutiny? Interestingly, the developers were kind enough to tell us the chance of Mutiny crafting 2 Tickets instead of 1; it’s right there easy to see! The chance is equal to her level. So it’s a bit odd that they wouldn’t just quantify the chance of crafting a Dungeon Ticket. I’m sure it has nothing to do with the fact that the chance is lower than crafting a double. So what is the chance?

    Based on over 200+ observations at Level 45 I would quantify the chance somewhere between 27-30%. Is it a sliding scale that tracks at approximately 2/3 the chance of crafting a Double every level you increase Mutiny? I don’t know. But based on feedback from a kingdom member with a Mutiny at Level 35, his rate was a bit south of 20%. It’s hard to say what the scaling is but needless to say it is significantly lower than the rate for crafting a double. Keep that in mind when deciding to where to spend your precious Ore.

  • Gear, Spell, and Minion Crafters

    The equipable item crafters are Toragon, Soulchaser, Xione, Gemka, and Jocea. Each of these is able to craft items up to Epic starting at Level 30 (I think). The question of course is: what are your chances of getting an Epic item. All of the above followers are Level 45 for me other than Jocea but I did not have any interest producing more minions so I did my tracking at Level 45. We can assume based on tracking done for Eveline by myself and others previously that the % chances are a sliding scale. What that scale looks like at each level is hard to say but if we know the rates at Level 45 and Epics are first offered at Level 30 we can make a guess what the chances might be.

    After 200+ Observations of equipable item crafters at Level 45 I have the following results:

    • Common: ~5%
    • Uncommon: ~54%
    • Rare : ~26%
    • Epic: ~15%

    There is some rounding here so it’s quite possible that these numbers are off +/- a few points. But overall the rates have been pretty consistent. Given that Epics can first be crafted at Level 20(?), it is possible to assume that the chance is increasing at ~0.5% a level but this is pure speculation. However these numbers do align reasonably well to the observed spread of drop rates for Key rarities that I will cite next. Based on that data, we can assume that an item crafter will likely have a 1% chance to drop a Legendary at Level 50 with Uncommon, Rare, and Epic varieties tracking to similar percentages as the Eveline key craft rates at 50 for Iron, Gold, and Ruby Keys.

  • Eveline

    Eveline appears to have a similar drop rate spread as the other crafters but I am separating Eveline from the other crafters because the total count of rarities for Keys is 5, compared to the rarity for items (Gear, Minions, Spells, etc.) which is 6. As far as I know the rates have not changed from what was documented by @Tacet here (I tracked about 100 drops as well at Level 50 and my data aligned with his):

  • Grungli and Darkhunter

    LOL. Yeah, not spending my Ore on this :laughing:

  • Relics from Dungeons

    I don’t even have the desire to repost everything I’ve said about this. Needless to say it’s probably 0.1% chance from a Dungeon chest.

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Nice breakdown @Sibelios

I had been prioritising Eveline, but since the daily challenges have started, offering various crystals, I’ve been putting everything into Mutiny. I have wondered about investing in Soulchaser, but as mine is still at 35 I doubt he’ll give me a better return on investment!

Good write up.

It would be great if the devs could add a tooltip that could display the real figures, as it seems highly likely that the odds of each rarity adjusts with every additional level put into the follower. There is quite a difference between L35 and L45 followers, and I think anyone that started after the follower readjustment is practically limited to L35 for most followers. It is possible to get them higher, but reliant on RNG to find 5 crystals per follower with current drop rates is a… “small chance” :wink:

This should start to ease up with the addition of more playable classes, and possible extension of the story since the final 2 don’t have 3 crystals per playthrough.

And hopefully they can re-re-adjust the ore drop rate since as of 0.36 there is not enough being generated by the miner to sustain one levelled follower, let alone the selection that we have.

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Unable to edit my original post but here’s my current thoughts on:

Glyphs

Unfortunately, the primary way to acquire glyphs is from shop purchases, either through very rare appearances in Daily Deals (I would estimate 1% of refreshes although it’s possible it may be higher recently, but half of those will be denominated in Crowns), weekly random Glyph from Shop Bundles for 1,700 gems, or purchase-on-demand for Crowns for all you :whale: :whale2:.

But what about earning them through game play? The best chance appears to be from the Events Loot Table. Based on 300 rounds of event play at Tier X, I currently estimate the glyph drop to be ~1%. If this rate is correct it is substantially higher than the rate to find a Glyph in chests generally, which is probably something close to 0.01%. Obviously when dealing with small drop rates, more observations are better to ensure that 1 drop +/- doesn’t skew the estimate.

Something to keep in mind about Glyphs from Events. …

The “color” of the Glyph that can drop during an Event appears to be random and is not bound by the “color” of the mastery of other Evolve materials that could drop (i.e. Scrolls and Runes). So in this specific Event example any Scrolls or Runes you receive will be Poison (Green), but you are just as likely to get an Armor Glyph from this event as you would a Minion Glyph.

Would love to hear feedback if you agree/disagree with this estimate.

3 Likes

Obviously none of this is relevant any longer about Eveline.

I have seen 1 Glyph as a drop from the events since they started. Not sure what my total number of daily/dungeon battles is, but I’m pretty sure that puts me well below 1%. But, let’s hear from others too. I seem to be crazy unlucky with this game. I’m guessing there are others that have gotten 4 or 5 glyphs and probably not done as many battles as me. They would help push that percentage back toward 1%. (This is my luck - I’ve literally been farming for a Blue Longsword for over 2 months. I’ve gotten about 25 longswords at Rare or Epic, but none of them have been Blue.)

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I got a legendary green mastery hammer to drop before I managed to get my hands on a green mastery of any quality longsword. I did end up getting one after approx. your number,…25…it could have been 30. but I’d already fixed my build around the legendary hammer.

And who the hell wants to level up a lv1 rare. yuck.

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I’d generally agree with the 1% estimate for Glyph drop rates from Event dungeon runs. I’ve seen 2 so far, and I’m reasonably “due” (that’s not how probability works) for a third one to show up somewhat soon.

At a fairly normal Tier 1 purchase for each Event run, that more or less places the expected timeframe to roll a Glyph at once per month (plus or minus RNG variance). Faster of course, if one buys Tier 2 or higher normally. Of course, at that point, a player might just be installment paying for an early extra weekly 1700 Gem glyph roll by doing that. In any case, the minuscule drop rate of Glyphs via Event reward runs is insufficent / immaterial to warrant that being attractive enough to justify the extra Gem spend on its own.

I’ll also second the observation that when and if a Glyph drops from an Event reward roll, the Glyph color received is not restricted by the color of the Event dungeon. Besides personal observation, if that was the case, players would spam the heck of out whatever color dungeon they needed for a specific Glyph, such as Red for Weapon Glyphs. I doubt the devs want to give players the ability to focus farm for specific color Glyphs, as that specific functionality is tied to Shop purchases with Crowns currently.

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