Been wracking my brain around this for a few days, and I cannot figure out any viable path forward for obtaining high rarity Season set bonuses.
I’ll use my current in-game situation as an anecdote to support my logic.
I’m interested in some of the current Season gear for my Shaman. With the short season, only 7 Mythic relics will be available, leaving me one short of being able to obtain a Mythic Dreamhold I set bonus. The expected value in currency for a single Season Mythic relic is (200 currency per Ultimate Pull) * (100% / 2% pull rate)) = 10000 currency on average. That’s an eye watering amount of Season currency for a ~50% chance to pull that missing relic.
So, maybe I’ll get lucky and pull that missing Mythic relic during the Season, maybe I won’t.
If I fail at that, I’ll get a “second chance” at pulling that Mythic relic when the Season moves to the Archive and I can throw all my accumulated Ancient Coins at the Ultimate Cache. Again, maybe I will pull that Mythic relic, maybe I won’t.
But what if I still fail to pull that relic? Well, at a cap of 210 coins per week and 10000 currency expected value for the Mythic relic, I can expect to pull that Mythic relic in (10000 / 210) = 47.62 weeks, assuming that I actively choose to never spend a single Ancient Coin on any other Reward in the Archive EVER.
Well, that’s sobering (and depressing). sigh
Let’s think happy thoughts, though. I get lucky and do pull that Mythic relic somewhere along the line and am able to obtain that Mythic Dreamhold I set bonus. Yay!
Somewhere along the line, I decide for some reason that the Dreamhold set bonus is the greatest thing since canned Cheez Whiz and want to chase the Dreamhold III set bonus because I am infatuated with the Dreamhold set in general. Well, that would take 4 more Mythic gear ascensions, which would mean 16 more Orbs of Wonder. By this point, the Season is well over, I’m locked to pulling in the Archive for these Mythic relics. Using the numbers above, the expected time (plus or minus RNG) to pull those relics would be:
(10000 expected value Ancient Coins per Mythic relic / 210 Ancient Coin cap per week) * 16 needed relics = 761.90 weeks / 52 weeks per year = 14.65 years.
Umm… that’s a problem. The game will likely have reached end-of-service by then.
So, I’m totally at a loss on how to work with Season gear, given the nigh impossibility of obtaining high rarity ascensions of that gear in the current implementation of the Season/Archive systems.
Some tweaks to these systems are sorely needed to address these shortcomings and to make chasing Season gear more appealing. Because, as in the current implementation, working with Season gear is more troublesome than any benefits that gear may provide.
Oh, and all of that is before even considering the almost mandatory Ancient Coin sinks that will be in place going forward regarding Season-locked Follower crystals, such as Resh. There will be a never-ending stream of Followers to consume any and all Ancient Coins that can be earned each week, leaving none to even save for pulling for relics in the future…