For you to advance just 1 level on the Battle Pass means winning 30 horns. For new players, who need “a key”, that mean waiting until days and days of bounties are collected. Either the rewards should be better, 5 or 10 keys, or the cost to get to the next level should be reduced. I bought the elite. At this rate, I will not again.
With how it is scaled now, all free and paid rewards could be on the free side and it STILL would not be worth it.
Assuming it goes for 60 days, using the one at a time method can average around 8 horns per day (even less if using all 4 tokens at once). That is around 480 horns. Assuming the player can get into 1 pvp tournament 100% of the time in that duration is around 8 times for 48 more horns. That means about 528 horns can be obtained for free using 0 gems, with around 96 more possible if all 3 pvp tournaments could be entered at 100% consistency (which currently 0 people have gotten into the highest tournament so far).
The battle pass takes 900 horns with 528 for free. At an average cost of 50 gems per 2 horns, that comes out to around 186 tasks more that the person would have to do with gems. This makes the current “free” side of the battle pass, as well as the full battle pass on paid side, require 4,650 gems. Every reward combined together currently on the free and paid side are worth less than 4,650 gems.